Pollyanna and Great Expectations
The largest, most popular, most anticipated sporting event in the world is in progress. The World Cup has been the cause of wars, a truce during a war, a change in banking laws (so Brazilians could watch their match), and all kinds of other world changing results. We think the Super Bowl is a big deal but it's barely a blip on the radar compared to how the rest of the world reacts to this once every four year event.
Actually, it is more than a once every four year event. The World Cup Finals do occur every four years. But they are the culmination of a two year long tournament! Remember the movie Hoosiers? The World Cup is like this for nations. Even the smallest nations in the world field teams and dream of making it through to the Finals. Every year Cinderella makes it to the ball. This year two showed up -- Trinidad and Tobago along with Togo. And Togo scored a goal and was leading the Koreans before finally being defeated in their opening match. And T&T tied the mighty Swedes, a perennial participant in the Finals.
After years of being a large nation playing at the level of some of the poorest and smallest nations in the world, in the last two decades our national team has moved onto the world stage. We have become a team that is not to be dismissed lightly. In 2002 we made it into the round of 16, losing to Germany, one of the very, very best squads in the world. Then, in the qualifying rounds to this year's tournament we easily moved through group and qualified for the finals now being played in Germany.
And along the way we saw our FIFA ranking climb into the top ten. Expectations grew. But are we really one of the ten best sides in the world? Probably not. The rankings are determined based upon results over the last ten years, and include "friendlies." These are matches played by national teams against one another outside of any tournament format. Though they can at times be anything but friendly, they are not taken seriously by the finest teams. They are exhibition matches, and teams use them like NFL teams use the preseason: the teams on the bottom play for victories hoping to instill confidence and get on a roll for when the real games start. The better teams use them as an opportunity to experiment, to give playing time and game experience to bench players, and to evaluate those trying out for a place on the squad. So teams have differing views of the importance of winning these matches. And though matches are weighted in the rankings, with World Cup finals matches counting the most, these friendlies still are part of the rankings equation. And skew the results. Hence the US rises in the rankings because of the importance placed on getting a result even in friendly matches, while teams like the Germans and Brazilians pay no attention what-so-ever to the score in most friendlies. Their newspapers will barely even report the score in articles about the friendlies, but will have pages of reporting on how each player performed and what it means for the future success of the team in real matches.
Which brings us to Pollyanna and great expectations. Americans have this incredible optimism that anticipates success. We are the richest nation in the world. And when we put our resources behind something we expect we'll win. We can't even conceive of failure. And for the average American who really doesn't follow futbol at all, it appears that we've given sufficient resources to our national team that they should have success. Add in a top ten world ranking and the thought that we could go to Germany and not earn a single point in three games is unthinkable.
Except that in the harsh light of reality, that is a more realistic expectation than anticipating we would reach the championship match. We are in a group with two of the strongest national teams in Europe. Italy is one of only SEVEN nations in the world to EVER win the World Cup. The Czech Republic has been very successful in the European tournaments and qualifying rounds that have led up to these Finals. The bookies in England have them as a dark horse to win it all. The Italians are one of the favorites. Add Ghana to the mix, the strongest side in Africa, with a whole bench full of players who play professionally for clubs in the top European leagues, and the US has its hands full. But Pollyanna can dream. And if Togo can score, and T&T get a point, who knows, maybe the US can beat the Italians (it's never happened before: 10 losses and 4 ties). And beat Ghana in five days. And maybe then that top ten ranking will actually mean something. It'll certainly go a long way toward changing how the rest of the world looks at our soccer playing capabilities. Three and out, and the Europeans abroad and in the States will dismiss the US as wannabes. A victory over Italy, and the whole world will take note. And be put on notice. Move over Spain and England, there's another team ready to rock n roll with the Germans and Brazilians.
Actually, it is more than a once every four year event. The World Cup Finals do occur every four years. But they are the culmination of a two year long tournament! Remember the movie Hoosiers? The World Cup is like this for nations. Even the smallest nations in the world field teams and dream of making it through to the Finals. Every year Cinderella makes it to the ball. This year two showed up -- Trinidad and Tobago along with Togo. And Togo scored a goal and was leading the Koreans before finally being defeated in their opening match. And T&T tied the mighty Swedes, a perennial participant in the Finals.
After years of being a large nation playing at the level of some of the poorest and smallest nations in the world, in the last two decades our national team has moved onto the world stage. We have become a team that is not to be dismissed lightly. In 2002 we made it into the round of 16, losing to Germany, one of the very, very best squads in the world. Then, in the qualifying rounds to this year's tournament we easily moved through group and qualified for the finals now being played in Germany.
And along the way we saw our FIFA ranking climb into the top ten. Expectations grew. But are we really one of the ten best sides in the world? Probably not. The rankings are determined based upon results over the last ten years, and include "friendlies." These are matches played by national teams against one another outside of any tournament format. Though they can at times be anything but friendly, they are not taken seriously by the finest teams. They are exhibition matches, and teams use them like NFL teams use the preseason: the teams on the bottom play for victories hoping to instill confidence and get on a roll for when the real games start. The better teams use them as an opportunity to experiment, to give playing time and game experience to bench players, and to evaluate those trying out for a place on the squad. So teams have differing views of the importance of winning these matches. And though matches are weighted in the rankings, with World Cup finals matches counting the most, these friendlies still are part of the rankings equation. And skew the results. Hence the US rises in the rankings because of the importance placed on getting a result even in friendly matches, while teams like the Germans and Brazilians pay no attention what-so-ever to the score in most friendlies. Their newspapers will barely even report the score in articles about the friendlies, but will have pages of reporting on how each player performed and what it means for the future success of the team in real matches.
Which brings us to Pollyanna and great expectations. Americans have this incredible optimism that anticipates success. We are the richest nation in the world. And when we put our resources behind something we expect we'll win. We can't even conceive of failure. And for the average American who really doesn't follow futbol at all, it appears that we've given sufficient resources to our national team that they should have success. Add in a top ten world ranking and the thought that we could go to Germany and not earn a single point in three games is unthinkable.
Except that in the harsh light of reality, that is a more realistic expectation than anticipating we would reach the championship match. We are in a group with two of the strongest national teams in Europe. Italy is one of only SEVEN nations in the world to EVER win the World Cup. The Czech Republic has been very successful in the European tournaments and qualifying rounds that have led up to these Finals. The bookies in England have them as a dark horse to win it all. The Italians are one of the favorites. Add Ghana to the mix, the strongest side in Africa, with a whole bench full of players who play professionally for clubs in the top European leagues, and the US has its hands full. But Pollyanna can dream. And if Togo can score, and T&T get a point, who knows, maybe the US can beat the Italians (it's never happened before: 10 losses and 4 ties). And beat Ghana in five days. And maybe then that top ten ranking will actually mean something. It'll certainly go a long way toward changing how the rest of the world looks at our soccer playing capabilities. Three and out, and the Europeans abroad and in the States will dismiss the US as wannabes. A victory over Italy, and the whole world will take note. And be put on notice. Move over Spain and England, there's another team ready to rock n roll with the Germans and Brazilians.
posted by Wake of the Flood at 8:10 AM
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